{"id":1343,"date":"2020-06-11T05:35:38","date_gmt":"2020-06-11T05:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=1343"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:45:39","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:45:39","slug":"federal-reserve-signals-zero-percent-interest-rates-economist-predicts-us-dollar-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=1343","title":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve\u6697\u793a\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u5e74\u4e3a\u96f6;\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06\u5d29\u76d8"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u201d\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2dJerome Powell\u6628\u665a\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u9884\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u4ece\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u7f13\u6162\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u58f0\u660e\u5ba3\u5e03\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57280% – 0.25%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n

\"{%ALT_TEXT%}\"
\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u9634\u5f71\u90e8\u5206\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Powell\u544a\u8bc9\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u201c\u89e6\u5e95\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u5347\u81f314.5%\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u52302020\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c06\u8fbe\u52309.3%\u3002<\/p>\n

Powell\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ece50\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u8fd190\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Powell\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u83b7\u5f97\u539f\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u201d\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u627e\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9eef\u6de1\u7684\u524d\u666f<\/h2>\n

\u5c31\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u5e03\u8fd9\u4e00\u60b2\u89c2\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u51e0\u5929\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c(World Bank)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba4\u4e3a\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210150\u5e74\u6765\u7b2c\u56db\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u7834\u574f\u6027\u662f2008-09\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

Powell\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d6.5%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1World Bank\u4f30\u8ba1\u76846.1%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5404\u79cd\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u534e\u76db\u987f\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u52302022\u5e74\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\u2014\u2014\u81ea3\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u82b1\u8d392\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143(2.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143)\u8d2d\u4e70\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503a\u5238\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u7684\u592e\u884c\u672c\u5468\u5c06\u652f\u51fa\u9884\u8ba1200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u5438\u6536\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u548c225\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u503a\u5238\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u6709\u58f0\u97f3\u547c\u5401\u5b9e\u884c\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c06\u501f\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u632f\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

Stephen Roach\u79f0\u7f8e\u5143\u5d29\u6e83<\/h2>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Stephen Roach\u547c\u5401\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5230\u5c3d\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n

Roach\u66fe\u4efbMorgan Stanley\u8463\u4e8b\u957f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662(Yale School of Management)\u4efb\u6559\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6324\u538b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5bf9\u66fe\u7ecf\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u201d\u672c\u5468\u6709\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\u4ed6\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6765\u81ea\u6d77\u5916\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u76c8\u4f59\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u50a8\u84c4\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u50a8\u84c4\u8131\u94a9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u8c01\u6765\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u56a3\u5f20\u7279\u6743\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u8d64\u5b57\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1?\u201d<\/p>\n

Roach\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u5373\u5c06\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\uff0c\u5c06\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u627f\u53d7\u6781\u5927\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u5c06\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u5267\u3002<\/p>\n

Roach\u6307\u51fa:\u201c\u5c31\u50cf\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u548c\u79cd\u65cf\u9a9a\u4e71\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5f3a\u52bf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5c06\u4f7f\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u53d7\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u201d\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2dJerome Powell\u6628\u665a\u8bf4\u3002 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u9884\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u4ece\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u7f13\u6162\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u58f0\u660e\u5ba3\u5e03\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57280% – 0.25%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002 Powell\u544a\u8bc9\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u201c\u89e6\u5e95\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u5347\u81f314.5%\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u52302020\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c06\u8fbe\u52309.3%\u3002 Powell\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u201d \u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ece50\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u8fd190\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u201d Powell\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u83b7\u5f97\u539f\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u201d\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u627e\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002 \u9eef\u6de1\u7684\u524d\u666f \u5c31\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u5e03\u8fd9\u4e00\u60b2\u89c2\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u51e0\u5929\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c(World Bank)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba4\u4e3a\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210150\u5e74\u6765\u7b2c\u56db\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5176\u7834\u574f\u6027\u662f2008-09\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002 Powell\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d6.5%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1World Bank\u4f30\u8ba1\u76846.1%\u3002 \u5404\u79cd\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u534e\u76db\u987f\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u52302022\u5e74\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 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