{"id":1442,"date":"2020-06-26T23:32:26","date_gmt":"2020-06-26T23:32:26","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=1442"},"modified":"2023-08-29T18:02:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T18:02:03","slug":"harry-dent-forecasts-global-debt-deleveraging-australia-property-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=1442","title":{"rendered":"Harry Dent\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u503a\u52a1\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u5316\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u76f4\u8a00\u4e0d\u8bb3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u548c\u8d44\u6df1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Harry Dent\u575a\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u582a\u6bd4\u5927\u8427\u6761\u548c2007-09\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\uff0cDent\u5bf9Small Caps<\/em>\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u4e0b\u8dcc\u81f3\u591a80%\uff0c\u800c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc40-50%\u3002\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u9519\u4f4d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u8d28\u7591\u4ed6\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a80%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u66b4\u8dcc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0cDent\u5148\u751f\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u672a\u6765\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u8f6c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e8670%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4f4d\u81ea\u79f0\u201c\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u4eba\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc4\u4f30\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636eDent\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u6240\u6709\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d85\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5df2\u64ad\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u707e\u96be\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u91d1\u878d\u707e\u96be\u4ee4\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u707e\u96be\u90fd\u76f8\u5f62\u89c1\u7ecc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0cDent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0d\u65ad\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u901a\u7f29\u2014\u2014\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u66f4\u591a\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8<\/h2>\n

\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u524d\u666f\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4e14\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e3a\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6700\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u65b9\u9762\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u5730\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u7684\u51c0\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e2d\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7ea6\u4e3a65%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8f83\u4e3a\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u4e3a29%\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u66f4\u662f\u9ad8\u5f97\u4ee4\u4eba\u5482\u820c\u768475%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u94f6\u884c\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc20%\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u90a3\u6837\u4e00\u6587\u4e0d\u540d\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u51e0\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u503a\u52a1\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u8d85\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u652f\u51fa\u5468\u671f\u548c\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u7b49\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5224\u65ad\u51fa30-50\u5e74\u540e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e3b\u9898\u6700\u7ec8\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5730\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u3001\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u3001\u745e\u5178\u548c\u632a\u5a01\u7b49\u4e94\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u8f83\u5c0f\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u6b27\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u8270\u96be\u5e94\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662fCOVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65b0\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000<\/h2>\n

\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u5e74\u8f7b\u3001\u66f4\u6d3b\u8dc3\u3001\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u65e9\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5b83\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u201d\u767b\u7279\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e76\u4e0d\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u7d27\u8feb\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b89\u629a\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u6bd2\u54c1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u52a1\u662f\u9996\u9009\u7684\u6bd2\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7GDP\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u6ce1\u6cab\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u7834\u88c2\u5f97\u5f88\u5389\u5bb3\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u8fc7\u5ea6\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u3001\u8d2d\u4e70\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u5370\u949e\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u79cd\u91d1\u878d\u836f\u7269\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u4ee5\u540e\u4e3a\u4e4b\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u503a\u52a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u5373\u5c06\u7834\u88c2<\/h2>\n

Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u522b\u65e0\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u4ee5\u503a\u52a1\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u5316\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u201c\u6392\u6bd2\u201d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u57281929-32\u5e74\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5d29\u76d8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u6ce1\u6cab\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u7834\u88c2\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0cDent\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u7a7a\u524d\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u51cf\u8f7b\u91d1\u878d\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u540e\u679c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u503a\u52a1\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528\u6765\u63a9\u76d6\u6f5c\u5728\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63a8\u9ad8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u503a\u52a1\u87ba\u65cb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u70b9\u4e0a\u53d8\u6210\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5230\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u201dDent\u5148\u751f\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u56e0\u7d20<\/h2>\n

\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5f71\u54cd\u6240\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4:\u201c\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u5f15\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u5df2\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u6536\u8d2d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n

Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u5230\u81f3\u5c11\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u751a\u81f32020\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fdb\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u624d\u80fd\u628a\u4e8b\u60c5\u6e05\u7406\u5e72\u51c0\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u529e\u6cd5\u6446\u8131\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9677\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u8427\u6761\u3002\u52302020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fbe\u523010%\u300115%\u300120%\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u663e\u793a\u4ed6\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u6216\u53e4\u602a\uff0cDent\u5148\u751f\u8bf4:\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u6212\u6bd2\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u573a\u8d85\u8fc7GFC\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u4f1a\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u642c\u5230\u9ec4\u91d1\u6d77\u5cb8\u53bb\u5f00\u8c6a\u534e\u8f7f\u8f66\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u76f4\u8a00\u4e0d\u8bb3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u548c\u8d44\u6df1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Harry Dent\u575a\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u582a\u6bd4\u5927\u8427\u6761\u548c2007-09\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002 \u5728\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\uff0cDent\u5bf9Small Caps\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u4e0b\u8dcc\u81f3\u591a80%\uff0c\u800c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc40-50%\u3002\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u9519\u4f4d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u6709\u5173\u3002 \u5f53\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u8d28\u7591\u4ed6\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a80%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u66b4\u8dcc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0cDent\u5148\u751f\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u672a\u6765\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u8f6c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e8670%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 \u8fd9\u4f4d\u81ea\u79f0\u201c\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u4eba\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc4\u4f30\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002 \u6839\u636eDent\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u6240\u6709\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d85\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5df2\u64ad\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u707e\u96be\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u91d1\u878d\u707e\u96be\u4ee4\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u707e\u96be\u90fd\u76f8\u5f62\u89c1\u7ecc\u3002 \u5728\u8c08\u5230\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0cDent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0d\u65ad\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u901a\u7f29\u2014\u2014\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u66f4\u591a\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002 \u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8 \u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u524d\u666f\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4e14\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e3a\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6700\u4f4e\u3002 \u79ef\u6781\u7684\u65b9\u9762\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u5730\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u7684\u51c0\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e2d\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7ea6\u4e3a65%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8f83\u4e3a\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u4e3a29%\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u66f4\u662f\u9ad8\u5f97\u4ee4\u4eba\u5482\u820c\u768475%\u3002 \u9ad8\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u94f6\u884c\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc20%\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u7834\u4ea7\u3002 Dent\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u90a3\u6837\u4e00\u6587\u4e0d\u540d\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u51e0\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u503a\u52a1\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u8d85\u91cd\u3002 Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u652f\u51fa\u5468\u671f\u548c\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u7b49\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5224\u65ad\u51fa30-50\u5e74\u540e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e3b\u9898\u6700\u7ec8\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u3002 Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5730\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u3001\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u3001\u745e\u5178\u548c\u632a\u5a01\u7b49\u4e94\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u8f83\u5c0f\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u6b27\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u8270\u96be\u5e94\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662fCOVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65b0\u6295\u8d44\u3002 \u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000 \u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u5e74\u8f7b\u3001\u66f4\u6d3b\u8dc3\u3001\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 \u201c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u65e9\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5b83\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u201d\u767b\u7279\u8868\u793a\u3002 \u201c\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e76\u4e0d\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3002\u201d 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\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u8fc7\u5ea6\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u3001\u8d2d\u4e70\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u5370\u949e\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u79cd\u91d1\u878d\u836f\u7269\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u4ee5\u540e\u4e3a\u4e4b\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u201d \u5168\u7403\u503a\u52a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u5373\u5c06\u7834\u88c2 Dent\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u522b\u65e0\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u4ee5\u503a\u52a1\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u5316\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u201c\u6392\u6bd2\u201d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u57281929-32\u5e74\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5d29\u76d8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u5f97\u591a\u3002 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