{"id":2514,"date":"2021-01-18T22:25:30","date_gmt":"2021-01-18T22:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=2514"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:48:11","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:48:11","slug":"elon-musk-proves-stock-market-bubble-is-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=2514","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08Jeremy Grantham\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0cGrantham\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u540e\u671f\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u6b63\u662f\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u738b\u50a8Elon Musk\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u4e00\u6761\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u201c\u4f7f\u7528\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d(Use Signal)\u63a8\u6587\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u76844200\u4e07\u5d07\u62dc\u4ed6\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u5c3d\u804c\u5c3d\u8d23\u5730\u9605\u8bfb\u4e86\u8fd9\u6761\u63a8\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Use Signal<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1347165127036977153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 7, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Tesla\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u96be\u4ee5\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n<p>Grantham\u672c\u4eba\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0cMusk\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u516c\u53f8Tesla\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u552e\u51fa\u7684\u6bcf\u8f86\u6c7d\u8f66\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u7684125\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u7528\u6c7d\u8f66\u6bcf\u8f86\u8f66\u4ec5\u4e3a9000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Musk\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03WhatsApp\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u6b3e\u52a0\u5bc6\u6d88\u606f\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u9690\u79c1\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8Facebook\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u7528\u6237\u6295\u653e\u5e7f\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679cWhatsApp\u7528\u6237\u57282\u67088\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9690\u79c1\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8d26\u6237\u5c06\u88ab\u5220\u9664\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u52a0\u5bc6\u6d88\u606f\u5e94\u7528(\u5982Signal\u6216Telegram)\u7684\u4e0b\u8f7d\u70ed\u6f6e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6d88\u606f\u66b4\u8df3\u5982\u96f7<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0cMusk\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5fe0\u5b9e\u7c89\u4e1d\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u795e\u79d8\u63a8\u6587\u8bef\u8bfb\u4e3a\u80a1\u7968\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e70\u8fdb\u4e00\u5bb6\u540d\u4e3aSignal Advance\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u533b\u7597\u8bbe\u5907\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u4e70\u8fdb\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u8fd9\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e09\u5929\u5185\u60ca\u4eba\u5730\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861178%\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5e02\u503c\u4ece5500\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u81f360\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ece0.6\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u81f370.85\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/smallcaps-production.test\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Signal-Advance-share-price-chart-Elon-Musk-Tweet.jpg\" alt=\"{%ALT_TEXT%}\" width=\"640\" height=\"237\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Elon Musk\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0cSignal\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u5448\u629b\u7269\u7ebf\u5f0f\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8fd9\u7fa4\u8ffd\u968f\u6f6e\u6d41\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u4e70\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65c5\u9f20\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u72af\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u50cf\u5356\u6c7d\u6cb9\u8f66\u4e00\u6837\u629b\u552e\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u50cf\u6ce1\u6cab\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50,\u5f88\u96be\u8d70\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e4e60\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u521b\u5efa\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u8bef\u89e3\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u63a8\u4eba\u638c\u8235\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4f30\u503c,\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>Grantham\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u8bc1\u636e<\/h2>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0cGrantham\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6ce1\u6cab\u901a\u7f29\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u548c\u901f\u5ea6\u603b\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6807\u201d(Buffett indicator)\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u5c06\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u4e0eGDP\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u5df2\u7ecf\u7a81\u7834\u4e862000\u5e74\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5d29\u76d8\u524d\u521b\u4e0b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u52302020\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5171\u6709480\u5b97IPO\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d248\u5b97\u662fspac\u6216\u65e8\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u76ee\u7684\u6536\u8d2d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fd9\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u7834\u4e862000\u5e74406\u5b97ipo\u7684\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0cGrantham\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6709150\u5bb6\u5e02\u503c\u8d85\u8fc72.5\u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u4e24\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u4ef7\u503c<\/h2>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5b83\u53c8\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8fdeGrantham\u90fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3001\u7834\u88c2\u6216\u7834\u88c2\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5feb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u5e74\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6162\u6162\u5730\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u660e\u5929\u7a81\u7136\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u4f46\u548c\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Grantham\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u5bfc\u822a\u662f\u56f0\u96be\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e8e\u770b\u770b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u677f\u5757\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u677f\u5757\u662f\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6beb\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u5f03\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u98ce\u9669\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u5f00\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u957f\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u201d\u597d\u8fd0\uff01\u201dGrantham\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728Elon Musk\u548c\u4ed6\u90a3\u4ee4\u4eba\u5174\u594b\u7684\u52a9\u624b\u4eec\u80af\u5b9a\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u5806\u4e71\u4e03\u516b\u7cdf\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u611a\u8822\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u8d2d\u4e70\u6765\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53c8\u88ab\u62b9\u53bb\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08Jeremy Grantham\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002 \u4f46\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u4e86\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0cGrantham\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u540e\u671f\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002 \u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u6b63\u662f\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u738b\u50a8Elon Musk\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u4e00\u6761\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u201c\u4f7f\u7528\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d(Use Signal)\u63a8\u6587\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u76844200\u4e07\u5d07\u62dc\u4ed6\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u5c3d\u804c\u5c3d\u8d23\u5730\u9605\u8bfb\u4e86\u8fd9\u6761\u63a8\u6587\u3002 Use Signal &mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 7, 2021 Tesla\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u96be\u4ee5\u5206\u6790 Grantham\u672c\u4eba\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0cMusk\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u516c\u53f8Tesla\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u552e\u51fa\u7684\u6bcf\u8f86\u6c7d\u8f66\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u7684125\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u7528\u6c7d\u8f66\u6bcf\u8f86\u8f66\u4ec5\u4e3a9000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 Musk\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03WhatsApp\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u6b3e\u52a0\u5bc6\u6d88\u606f\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u9690\u79c1\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8Facebook\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u7528\u6237\u6295\u653e\u5e7f\u544a\u3002 \u5982\u679cWhatsApp\u7528\u6237\u57282\u67088\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9690\u79c1\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8d26\u6237\u5c06\u88ab\u5220\u9664\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u52a0\u5bc6\u6d88\u606f\u5e94\u7528(\u5982Signal\u6216Telegram)\u7684\u4e0b\u8f7d\u70ed\u6f6e\u3002 \u9519\u8bef\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6d88\u606f\u66b4\u8df3\u5982\u96f7 \u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0cMusk\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5fe0\u5b9e\u7c89\u4e1d\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u795e\u79d8\u63a8\u6587\u8bef\u8bfb\u4e3a\u80a1\u7968\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e70\u8fdb\u4e00\u5bb6\u540d\u4e3aSignal Advance\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u533b\u7597\u8bbe\u5907\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002 \u4ed6\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u4e70\u8fdb\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u8fd9\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e09\u5929\u5185\u60ca\u4eba\u5730\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861178%\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5e02\u503c\u4ece5500\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u81f360\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ece0.6\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u81f370.85\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8fd9\u7fa4\u8ffd\u968f\u6f6e\u6d41\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u4e70\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65c5\u9f20\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u72af\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u50cf\u5356\u6c7d\u6cb9\u8f66\u4e00\u6837\u629b\u552e\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u50cf\u6ce1\u6cab\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50,\u5f88\u96be\u8d70\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e4e60\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u521b\u5efa\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u8bef\u89e3\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u63a8\u4eba\u638c\u8235\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4f30\u503c,\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u3002 Grantham\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u8bc1\u636e \u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u5b83\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0cGrantham\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6ce1\u6cab\u901a\u7f29\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u548c\u901f\u5ea6\u603b\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u9009\u62e9\u3002 \u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6807\u201d(Buffett indicator)\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u5c06\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u4e0eGDP\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002 \u8be5\u6307\u6570\u5df2\u7ecf\u7a81\u7834\u4e862000\u5e74\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5d29\u76d8\u524d\u521b\u4e0b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u52302020\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5171\u6709480\u5b97IPO\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d248\u5b97\u662fspac\u6216\u65e8\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u76ee\u7684\u6536\u8d2d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fd9\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u7834\u4e862000\u5e74406\u5b97ipo\u7684\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0cGrantham\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6709150\u5bb6\u5e02\u503c\u8d85\u8fc72.5\u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u4e24\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u591a\u3002 \u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u4ef7\u503c \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5b83\u53c8\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8fdeGrantham\u90fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3001\u7834\u88c2\u6216\u7834\u88c2\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5feb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002 \u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u5e74\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6162\u6162\u5730\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u660e\u5929\u7a81\u7136\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u4f46\u548c\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002 Grantham\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u5bfc\u822a\u662f\u56f0\u96be\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e8e\u770b\u770b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u677f\u5757\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u677f\u5757\u662f\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u80a1\u7968\u3002 \u201c\u6beb\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u5f03\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u98ce\u9669\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u5f00\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u957f\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u201d\u597d\u8fd0\uff01\u201dGrantham\u8bf4\u3002 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728Elon Musk\u548c\u4ed6\u90a3\u4ee4\u4eba\u5174\u594b\u7684\u52a9\u624b\u4eec\u80af\u5b9a\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u5806\u4e71\u4e03\u516b\u7cdf\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u611a\u8822\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u8d2d\u4e70\u6765\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53c8\u88ab\u62b9\u53bb\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v17.3 (Yoast SEO v21.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Elon Musk\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08Jeremy Grantham\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Elon Musk\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08Jeremy Grantham\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta 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