{"id":3319,"date":"2021-06-21T00:00:13","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T00:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=3319"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:49:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:49:56","slug":"will-rising-interest-rates-finally-slow-property-price-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=3319","title":{"rendered":"\u52a0\u606f\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u51cf\u7f13\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u5417?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(FED)\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c(Australia\u2019s Reserve Bank)\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6297\u51fb\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u4e3a\u7099\u624b\u53ef\u70ed\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u539f\u6709\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347<\/h2>\n

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\u4f4f\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u8981Phar Lap\u5904\u7406\u5417?<\/h2>\n

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\u4e0d\u7ba1\u9a6c\u6709\u591a\u597d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u978d\u56ca\u91cc\u52a0\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u94c5\uff0c\u5b83\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u56de\u53bb\u79cd\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n

\u58a8\u5c14\u672c\u548c\u6089\u5c3c\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u4e2d\u503c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a90.8\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u548c120\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u6b63\u53d8\u5f97\u96be\u4ee5\u7528\u4efb\u4f55\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5c11\u94c5\u624d\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u592e\u884c\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u68c0\u67e5\u540e\u89c6\u955c\u4e2d\u7684\u788e\u7247\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4e2a\u5927\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u751a\u81f3\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u90fd\u5f88\u5feb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u5357\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u5927\u5b66(University of New South Wales)\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u51fa\u8272\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6b63\u5728\u8ba9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u73b0\u572835\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u4e70\u4e0d\u8d77\u623f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7e41\u8363\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u66f4\u5177\u751f\u4ea7\u6027\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u5206\u6d41\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u626d\u66f2\u4e86\u5404\u5927\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u4e8e\u9ad8\u8d1f\u503a\u6c34\u5e73\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u63d0\u9ad8\u6240\u6709\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u6210\u672c\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u670d\u52a1\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u201d\u5e76\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u589e\u957f\u201c\u4e0d\u50cf\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u521b\u9020\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u3001\u5e74\u957f\u7684\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u8ba9\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u3001\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e70\u5bb6\u751f\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6536\u5165\u7684\u589e\u957f<\/h2>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u589e\u957f\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6536\u5165\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u56fd\u4f4f\u623f\u62e5\u6709\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e864%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f4f\u623f\u62e5\u6709\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c35\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u62e5\u6709\u7387\u81ea1995\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u5dde\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u201c\u4f4f\u623f\u8d1f\u62c5\u80fd\u529b\u201d\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e00\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u51e0\u4e4e\u6beb\u65e0\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u7687\u5bb6\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u518d\u6765\u4e00\u4e2aRoyal Commission\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u5417?<\/h2>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5efa\u8bae\u7ed3\u675f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u79df\u8d41\u4f4f\u623f\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u592e\u884c\u627f\u62c5\u8d77\u63d0\u4f9b\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u8fd0\u8f6c\u826f\u597d\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u5927\u591a\u6570,\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u90e8,\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u9769\u4e0d\u4f1a\u91cd\u89c1\u5929\u65e5,\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8981\u65e9\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728\u5927\u817f\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6682\u505c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5229\u7387\u7a33\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u5e38\u751f\u786c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u65bd\u5f97\u592a\u65e9\u6216\u592a\u4e25\u5389\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5c06\u4f7f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u53d8\u5f97\u75db\u82e6<\/h2>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d1f\u503a\u7387\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u7387\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u5242\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u3001\u4f46\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u541e\u4e0b\u7684\u836f\u4e38\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u51cf\u7f13\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40(Australian Bureau of Statistics)\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u65b0\u5357\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u5dde\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u65b0\u589e\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u8dc3\u5347\u4e863.5\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u768463.53\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u7ef4\u591a\u5229\u4e9a\u5dde\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728\u622a\u81f34\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u4e5f\u8dc3\u5347\u4e863.5\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8652.3\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de8\u989d\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u5168\u7403\u9886\u5148\u201d\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7(OECD)\u9488\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u4e4b\u540e\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002<\/p>\n

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