{"id":3404,"date":"2021-07-06T22:04:52","date_gmt":"2021-07-06T22:04:52","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=3404"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:50:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:50:08","slug":"housing-bubble-combined-low-rates-could-be-toxic-combination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=3404","title":{"rendered":"\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u7ec4\u5408"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5f53\u4f60\u628a\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u5b9e\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48?<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7The Housing Fever\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u4ee4\u4eba\u5c0a\u656c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce1\u6cab\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6536\u5165\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u5e94\u7b49\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u9519\u8fc7\u673a\u4f1a\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\u5bfc\u81f4\u6050\u614c\u6027\u8d2d\u4e70\u548c\u6295\u673a\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u63a8\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u8d44\u672c\u5f15\u9886\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u6f6e\u6d41<\/h2>\n

\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6ce1\u6cab\u5730\u533a\u662f\u5728\u6089\u5c3c\u3001\u58a8\u5c14\u672c\u3001\u5e03\u91cc\u65af\u73ed\u3001\u963f\u5fb7\u83b1\u5fb7\u548c\u582a\u57f9\u62c9\u3002<\/p>\n

Macquarie Business School\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388Shuping Shi\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f4e\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u771f\u6b63\u96be\u4ee5\u63d0\u524d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u675f\u2014\u2014\u662f\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u51fa\u73b0\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u901a\u7f29\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n

Shi\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u9884\u8ba1\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u5e73\u6216\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7eaa\u5f55\u4ecd\u5728\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u4f46\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13<\/h2>\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u672c\u5730\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u60ca\u4eba\u3002Core Logic\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u90fd\u521b\u4e0b\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u623f\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/p>\n

\u636eCore Logic Home Value Index\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u503c\u53bb\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e8613.5%\uff0c6\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u4e3a645454\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u73af\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861.9%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea2004\u5e744\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e24\u500d\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u5e02\u3001\u582a\u57f9\u62c9\u5e02\u3001\u65b0\u5357\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u5dde\u548c\u5854\u65af\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u7684\u589e\u957f\u8d85\u8fc720%\uff0c\u6089\u5c3c(19.3%)\u548c\u970d\u5df4\u7279(19.2%)\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u6570\u989d\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u507f\u8fd8\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e<\/h2>\n

\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u5982\u6b64\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ad8\u5f97\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b?<\/p>\n

\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u503a\u52a1\u4e5f\u53d8\u5f97\u76f8\u5f53\u5bb9\u6613\u627f\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c(Reserve Bank of Australia) 2021\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u52a1\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c2021\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u5229\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u4e0e\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u964d\u81f35.8%\uff0c\u4e0d\u52302008\u5e7412\u670813.3%\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ec5\u770b\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u503a\u52a1\uff0c2021\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u4ed8\u4e0e\u6536\u5165\u4e4b\u6bd4\u964d\u81f34.9%\uff0c\u4e0d\u52302008\u5e7412\u6708\u5cf0\u503c10.6%\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n

Bank for International Settlements\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u57282020\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u672c\u4ed8\u606f\u503a\u52a1\u5360\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u964d\u81f313.6%\u768417\u5e74\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c\u6bd42008\u5e746\u670817.6%\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u4f4e\u4e864%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5806\u79ef\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4ecd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8d1f\u62c5\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u968f\u7740\u4ee5\u8f83\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u518d\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u70ed\u6f6e\u5f00\u59cb\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u5c06\u4f1a\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48?<\/h2>\n

\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u5229\u7387\u8f6c\u5411\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48?\u662f\u968f\u7740\u507f\u8fd8\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u9010\u6e10\u5360\u636e\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u7ed9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6ce1\u6cab\u7ee7\u7eed\u81a8\u80c0?<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u96be\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u7b49\u5230\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u660e\u786e\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u4e8e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63d0\u524d\u786e\u5b9a\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u662f\u56f0\u96be\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6a2a\u76d8\u4ea4\u6613\u6765\u9002\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4f1a\u8d76\u4e0a\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5f53\u4f60\u628a\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u5b9e\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48? \u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7The Housing Fever\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u4ee4\u4eba\u5c0a\u656c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce1\u6cab\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6536\u5165\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u5e94\u7b49\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002 \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u9519\u8fc7\u673a\u4f1a\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\u5bfc\u81f4\u6050\u614c\u6027\u8d2d\u4e70\u548c\u6295\u673a\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u63a8\u9ad8\u3002 \u5927\u8d44\u672c\u5f15\u9886\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u6f6e\u6d41 \u6839\u636e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6ce1\u6cab\u5730\u533a\u662f\u5728\u6089\u5c3c\u3001\u58a8\u5c14\u672c\u3001\u5e03\u91cc\u65af\u73ed\u3001\u963f\u5fb7\u83b1\u5fb7\u548c\u582a\u57f9\u62c9\u3002 Macquarie Business School\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388Shuping Shi\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f4e\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u3002 \u771f\u6b63\u96be\u4ee5\u63d0\u524d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u675f\u2014\u2014\u662f\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u51fa\u73b0\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u901a\u7f29\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u3002 Shi\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u9884\u8ba1\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u5e73\u6216\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002 \u7eaa\u5f55\u4ecd\u5728\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u4f46\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13 \u4e00\u4e9b\u672c\u5730\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u60ca\u4eba\u3002Core Logic\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u90fd\u521b\u4e0b\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u623f\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u653e\u7f13\u3002 \u636eCore Logic Home Value Index\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u503c\u53bb\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e8613.5%\uff0c6\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u4e3a645454\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u73af\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861.9%\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u81ea2004\u5e744\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e24\u500d\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3002 \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u5e02\u3001\u582a\u57f9\u62c9\u5e02\u3001\u65b0\u5357\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u5dde\u548c\u5854\u65af\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u7684\u589e\u957f\u8d85\u8fc720%\uff0c\u6089\u5c3c(19.3%)\u548c\u970d\u5df4\u7279(19.2%)\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u3002 \u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u6570\u989d\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u507f\u8fd8\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e \u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u5982\u6b64\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ad8\u5f97\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b? 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