{"id":4536,"date":"2022-01-23T22:20:10","date_gmt":"2022-01-23T22:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=4536"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:52:42","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:52:42","slug":"another-jeremy-grantham-super-bubble-call","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=4536","title":{"rendered":"\u4e00\u6708\u4efd\u4e86\uff0c\u53c8\u5230\u4e86Jeremy Grantham\u8d85\u7ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7535\u8bdd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u82f1\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u6c38\u4e45\u718a\u5e02\u8bba\u8005Jeremy Grantham\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6bcf\u5e741\u6708\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u63a8\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b:\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u672b\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u5230Grantham\u53d1\u8868\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8981\u63a8\u7ffb\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56f0\u96be\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u9f13\u821e\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u2014\u2014\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u907f\u5f00\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5174\u8870\u3002<\/p>\n

Grantham\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u4ed6\u64c5\u957f\u53d1\u73b0\u6295\u673a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u592a\u64c5\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce1\u6cab\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ed6\u5728\u53bb\u5e741\u6708\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

Grantham\u8bf4\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86<\/h2>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u7a0d\u5fae\u5938\u5f20\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u8bf4\u4ed6\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u80a1\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(fed)\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u80a1\u5e02\u6700\u7ec8\u66b4\u8dcc\u8fd150%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0cGrantham\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u65f6\u673a\u7684\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4ed6\u5ba3\u79f0\u629b\u552e\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u5e76\u8bca\u65ad\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8fd8\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u5c06\u4ece1\u67084\u65e5\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc48%\uff0c\u81f3\u4ec52500\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570(Nasdaq Composite)\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fee\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u201d<\/h2>\n

Grantham\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u5f6d\u535a\u793e(Bloomberg)\u7535\u89c6\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6ce1\u6cab\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u6211\u5bf92000\u5e74\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u6ce1\u6cab\u3001\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3001\u5bf92007\u5e74\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u90a3\u6837\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Grantham\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u201c\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7c73\u59c6\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5bf9\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u75af\u72c2\u8d2d\u4e70\u3001\u72d7\u72d7\u5e01\u7b49\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u8352\u8c2c\u201d\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u4ee3\u5e01(NFT)\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e00\u53ea\u6c38\u4e45\u718a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53cd\u5e94?<\/h2>\n

\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u63a5\u53d7Grantham\u5206\u6790\u65e2\u51c6\u786e\u548c\u53ca\u65f6,\u4ed6\u56de\u7b54\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u60a8\u671f\u671b\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u8005,\u56de\u5f52\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u4ecb\u610f\u7b49\u5f85\u548c\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4ed6\u8fd8\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u6301\u6709\u7528\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u4fdd\u503c\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u767d\u94f6\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u573a\u5916\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u518d\u5ea6\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u914d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n

Grantham\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u8d85\u7ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7ed3\u675f\u548c\u201c\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u9a9a\u52a8\u201d\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u5f53\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u91cd\u8fd4\u5e02\u573a\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u8d22\u5bcc\u7f29\u6c34\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u9690\u85cf<\/h2>\n

Grantham\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6ce1\u6cab\u6269\u5927\u5230\u503a\u5238\u548c\u5168\u7403\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u9690\u85cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636eGrantham\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u4f1a\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6210\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u718a\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u597d\u5904\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f60\u4f1a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u2014\u2014\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u89c4\u907f\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7b49\u5f85\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

Grantham\u53bb\u5e741\u6708\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5<\/h2>\n

\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u53bb\u5e74\u4e3a\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\uff0cGrantham\u5efa\u8bae\u8d2d\u4e70\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u578b\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u957f\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u8fd9\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u957f\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u57282021\u5e74\u8dc3\u5347\u4e8626.9%\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8be5\u6307\u657050\u5e74\u6765\u7b2c\u4e03\u5927\u6700\u4f73\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9519\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u5f25\u8865\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6ce1\u6cab\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u56de\u7b54<\/h2>\n

\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u6ce1\u6cab\u4f1a\u4ee5\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7f13\u6162\u901a\u7f29\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4ee5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5d29\u76d8\u544a\u7ec8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u5f88\u96be\u5206\u8fa8\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5370\u949e\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u53ef\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u603b\u6709\u4e00\u5929\uff0cJeremy Grantham\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u4ee5\u5f80\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u56f0\u96be\u5728\u4e8e\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u5728\u77e5\u9053\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u6295\u8d44\u5e76\u8865\u5145\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u5728\u907f\u514d\u6f5c\u5728\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4e2d\u9519\u8fc7\u4e30\u539a\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u6837\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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