{"id":5115,"date":"2022-05-10T01:13:18","date_gmt":"2022-05-10T01:13:18","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=5115"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:54:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:54:00","slug":"how-to-invest-for-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=5115","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6295\u8d44"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u6295\u8d44\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4ee5S&P 500 \u6307\u6570\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u81ea 1937 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u8870\u9000\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5e73\u5747\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e3a 32%\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u90fd\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6253\u51fb\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b<\/h2>\n

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\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5168\u662f\u574f\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u4f1f\u5927\u7684Warren Buffett\u4e00\u76f4\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u65f6\u671f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5efa\u7acb\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u518d\u6b21\u91cd\u542f\uff0c\u8be5\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5c06\u7ecf\u53d7\u4f4f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8003\u9a8c\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u9ad8\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4eceBuffett\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u6700\u5927\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6050\u614c\u548c\u9003\u8dd1\u6765\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u8d28\u91cf\u5f88\u91cd\u8981<\/h2>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u8870\u9000\u6700\u6e05\u6d01\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u663e\u793a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982Buffett\u7684\u540d\u8a00\u6240\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u6f6e\u6c34\u9000\u53bb\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u8c01\u5728\u88f8\u6cf3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u4e00\u5207\u7a81\u7136\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u68d2\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u88ab\u66b4\u9732\u4e3a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u80a1\u6f6e\u6d41\u5728\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u771f\u7684\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u60a8\u4ece\u7b49\u5f0f\u4e2d\u51cf\u53bb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u8981\u7d20\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u3001\u53ef\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u56f0\u96be\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u56de\u62a5\u548c\u8f6c\u5ac1\u6210\u672c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u65f6\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u84dd\u7b79\u80a1\u548c\u6709\u65f6\u4e4f\u5473\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8131\u9896\u800c\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u5174\u594b\u7684\u589e\u957f\u673a\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u53d7\u8ffd\u6367\u3002<\/p>\n

\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e5f\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u2014\u2014\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u63a5\u8fd1\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u56fa\u79df\u7ea6\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u623f\u4ea7\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u53d8\u5f97\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u76ca\u4f46\u673a\u4f1a\u591a\u7684\u7a7a\u5730\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u4ece\u6f5c\u5728\u8870\u9000\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u9009\u62e9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ea6\u8fc7\u8270\u96be\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7ecf\u7406\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6ce2\u6d9b\u6c79\u6d8c\u7684\u6c34\u57df\u4e2d\u822a\u884c\u7684\u538b\u529b\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ba1\u7406\u826f\u597d\u3001\u6536\u8d39\u4f4e\u5ec9\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8 (LIC)\uff0c\u5982Australian Foundation (ASX: AFI) \u6216Argo (ASX: ARG) \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u73a9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e24\u5bb6 LIC \u90fd\u652f\u4ed8\u4e30\u539a\u7684\u80a1\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 ASX200 \u4e2d\u4ee5\u9ad8\u4ef7\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\u79ef\u6781\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u6fc0\u70c8\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u578b LIC \u7b49\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u80fd\u8ddf\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d76\u4e0a\u6700\u65b0\u8d8b\u52bf\u800c\u6784\u5efa\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u65f6\u671f\u4ea7\u751f\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u575a\u5982\u78d0\u77f3\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u6837\uff0cState Street \u7684 ASX 200 ETF (ASX: STW) \u7b49\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4ea4\u6613\u57fa\u91d1\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6295\u8d44\u6700\u5927\u548c\u6700\u5f3a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4f4e\u8d39\u7528\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u5e76\u6536\u53d6\u5c11\u91cf\u7ba1\u7406\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u4e0a\u5e02\u6216\u975e\u4e0a\u5e02\uff09\u8d2d\u4e70\u6216\u901a\u8fc7 ETF \u83b7\u5f97\u76f4\u63a5\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Vanguard\u7684US Total Market ETF (ASX: VTS) \u548c All World ex-US ETF (ASX: VEU) \u4ec5\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0a\u5e02 ETF \u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u60f3\u6311\u9009\u5404\u79cd\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6700\u5b89\u5168\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u901a\u8fc7 ETF \u8d2d\u4e70\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u4f4e\u5ec9\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u83b7\u5f97\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6295\u8d44\u623f\u5730\u4ea7<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\u671f\u95f4\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5f3a\u52b2\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u73b0\u91d1\u548c\u5b9a\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u88ab\u629b\u552e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5206\u7c7b\u5e10\u7684\u8d22\u4ea7\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u4e0d\u60f3\u7ecf\u5386\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u878d\u8d44\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8d22\u4ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7 Vanguard Australian Property Securities Index (ASX: VAP \uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b83\u5728\u96f6\u552e\u3001\u529e\u516c\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u548c\u591a\u5143\u5316\u8d22\u4ea7\u4fe1\u6258\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u60a8\u663e\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u62e9\u4e2a\u4eba\u8d22\u4ea7\u4fe1\u6258\u6765\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6311\u9009\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u503a\u5238\u56fe\u7247\u591a\u4e91<\/h2>\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u597d\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5229\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u4e14\u5448\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u503a\u5238\u57fa\u91d1\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u5238\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5f53\u524d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u679c\u65b0\u503a\u5238\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60a8\u7684\u503a\u5238\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

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