{"id":6238,"date":"2022-12-19T17:42:13","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T17:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=6238"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:56:34","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:56:34","slug":"will-falling-household-wealth-suppress-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=6238","title":{"rendered":"\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0b\u964d\u4f1a\u6291\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u611f\u89c9\u6709\u591a\u5bcc\u6709\uff1f<\/p>\n

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\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d22\u5bcc\u7f29\u6c34<\/h2>\n

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\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5bb6\u5ead\u7528\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u6da8\u2014\u2014\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5360\u7528\u4e86\u5bb6\u5ead\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9192\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5bcc\u6709\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u80fd\u529b\u56e0\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8d22\u5bcc\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u589e\u957f\u6765\u5f25\u8865\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u578b\u8d22\u5bcc\u201c\u5bb9\u5668\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0b\u964d<\/h2>\n

\u636e Rainmaker \u5206\u6790\uff0c\u81ea 2021 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ec5\u4e3e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5e74\u521d\u62e5\u6709 200 \u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u623f\u5c4b\u3001100 \u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c 100,000 \u6fb3\u5143\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u51c0\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u8fd1 6%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u623f\u5c4b\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 140,000 \u6fb3\u5143\uff0csuper \u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 34,000 \u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 500 \u6fb3\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 24%\uff0c\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\u8dc3\u5347\u4e86 15% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u589e\u957f\u4e86 17%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5<\/h2>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40 (ABS) \u6700\u65b0\u7684 9 \u6708\u5b63\u5ea6\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u522b\u5177\u6709\u7834\u574f\u6027\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u5728\u672c\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 2760 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u6216 1.9%\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4f4f\u623f\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 3430 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u6216 3.6%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea 3 \u6708\u5b63\u5ea6\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc 4900 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u6216 5%\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86 7700 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u6216 5.1%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u672c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u51c0\u8d22\u5bcc\u5728\u672c\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 2.1% \u6216 11,700 \u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u53d7\u5230\u4f4f\u623f\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d 3.8% \u6216 13,900 \u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2a\u4eba\u6570\u5b57\u548c\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5bcc\u8c6a\u53d7\u5230\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d22\u5bcc\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0b\u964d<\/h2>\n

\u4e0e\u6240\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u5728\u5230\u8fbe\u65f6\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u81ea 9 \u6708\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc 2.8%\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u52a0\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u79ef\u6781\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8d22\u5bcc\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u623f\u4ef7\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u548c\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08Reserve Bank\uff09\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u201c\u8f6c\u5411\u201d\u6216\u201c\u6682\u505c\u201d\u8ff9\u8c61\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u5f00\u59cb\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5f00\u59cb\u671d\u7740\u79ef\u6781\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6b63\u4ece\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u5929\u4ef7\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5bb6\u5ead\u7528\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u6da8\u2014\u2014\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5360\u7528\u4e86\u5bb6\u5ead\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9192\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5bcc\u6709\u4e86\u3002 \u8fd9\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u80fd\u529b\u56e0\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8d22\u5bcc\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u589e\u957f\u6765\u5f25\u8865\u3002 \u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u578b\u8d22\u5bcc\u201c\u5bb9\u5668\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u8c28\u614e\u3002 \u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0b\u964d \u636e Rainmaker \u5206\u6790\uff0c\u81ea 2021 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u8d22\u5bcc\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002 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