{"id":6276,"date":"2023-01-08T22:41:31","date_gmt":"2023-01-08T22:41:31","guid":{"rendered":"\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=6276"},"modified":"2023-08-29T17:56:39","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:56:39","slug":"negative-yield-bonds-disappear-signalling-end-easy-money-era","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smallcapscn.x5view.co\/?p=6276","title":{"rendered":"\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u5238\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7ed3\u675f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6700\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e4b\u4e00\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u6084\u7136\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u660e\u786e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u540e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u592e\u884c\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u786e\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u811a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u53bb\u5411\u65f6\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u628a\u4f60\u7684\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\uff0c\u6709\u60ca\u4eba\u7684 260 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u770b\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4eba\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u9501\u5b9a\u4e86\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u6536\u56de\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5c11\u4e8e\u6295\u5165\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u636e Bloomberg \u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5360\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u53d1\u884c\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e24\u4e2a\u8d1f\u6570\u7ec4\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u6570\uff1f<\/h2>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5370\u949e\u548c\u592e\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u5238\u7684\u53cd\u5e38\u903b\u8f91\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u592e\u884c\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u90fd\u5728\u56de\u8d2d\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u8d44\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u968f\u7740\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u6700\u7ec8\u653e\u677e\u5bf9\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u52a0\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u5916\u89c2\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5982\u679c\u6301\u6709\u81f3\u5230\u671f\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank \u4e3b\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba Jim Reid \u662f\u6700\u5148\u53d1\u73b0\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u5238\u80cc\u79bb\u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728 2014 \u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u201c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u5238\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6025\u9700\u589e\u957f<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u00a0Global Financial Crisis (GFC) \u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u62fc\u547d\u52aa\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u5176\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u3001\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u3001\u5370\u949e\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b \u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u7279\u6743\u4e70\u5355\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4ece\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u745e\u58eb\u3001\u4e39\u9ea6\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002<\/p>\n

\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u73b0\u5728\u66b4\u8dcc<\/h2>\n

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\u73b0\u5728\u503a\u5238\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e0c\u671b\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u91cd\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e00\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u540e\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u4e25\u91cd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u8bc4\u8bba\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u5238\u7684\u7cdf\u7cd5\u65e5\u5b50\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u65e9\u56de\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6700\u597d\u673a\u4f1a\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46\u8d1f\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u6cbb\u7597\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f0a\u75c5\u7684\u7075\u4e39\u5999\u836f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e25\u91cd\u5931\u8861\u7684\u5f81\u5146\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6548\u529b\u5df2\u5230\u5c3d\u5934\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u662f\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u523a\u6fc0\u589e\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6700\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e4b\u4e00\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u6084\u7136\u6d88\u5931\u3002 \u8fd9\u660e\u786e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u540e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u592e\u884c\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u786e\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u811a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u53bb\u5411\u65f6\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u628a\u4f60\u7684\u94b1\u3002 \u5728\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\uff0c\u6709\u60ca\u4eba\u7684 260 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u770b\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4eba\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u9501\u5b9a\u4e86\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u6536\u56de\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5c11\u4e8e\u6295\u5165\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002 \u636e Bloomberg \u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5360\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u53d1\u884c\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002 \u4e24\u4e2a\u8d1f\u6570\u7ec4\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u6570\uff1f \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5370\u949e\u548c\u592e\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u5238\u7684\u53cd\u5e38\u903b\u8f91\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u592e\u884c\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u90fd\u5728\u56de\u8d2d\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u8d44\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u3002 \u73b0\u5728\u968f\u7740\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u6700\u7ec8\u653e\u677e\u5bf9\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u503a\u5238\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u52a0\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u5916\u89c2\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5982\u679c\u6301\u6709\u81f3\u5230\u671f\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u56de\u62a5\u3002 Deutsche Bank \u4e3b\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba Jim Reid \u662f\u6700\u5148\u53d1\u73b0\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u5238\u80cc\u79bb\u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728 2014 \u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u201c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u5238\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u201d\u3002 \u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6025\u9700\u589e\u957f \u5728\u00a0Global Financial Crisis (GFC) \u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u62fc\u547d\u52aa\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u5176\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u3001\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u3001\u5370\u949e\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b \u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\u3002 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